ABSTRACT
Background: The aim was to verify whether the density of particulate matter (PM10), the climate, and the mobility of people can influence the pandemic in the 19 regions and in the two autonomous Italian provinces as incidence rate and lethality.
Design and Methods: The incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants and the case fatality ratio (CFR) (dependent variables) in all Italian regions were calculated in January 2021 at John Hopkins University Coronavirus Center. The independent variables were: -Minimum average temperatures in the same month (January) of 2020, -Average pollution of PM10 in the air in each region in the last year available reported on a 0-10 scale to 0 = total absence of PM10 to 10 maximum pollutions. -Number of places in hotels occupied per inhabitants in 2020. Linear regression and Multiple Regression Analysis were carried out.
Results: The spread of the COVID-19 in the Italian regions seems to be related to pollution of PM10, the number of beds occupied in hotels (as an index of mobility and temperature (indirect correlation). On the contrary, the CFR correlates inversely with temperature but not with pollution. Measuring the concomitant effect of two independent variables by means of Multiple Regression Analysis, temperature and pollution show a synergistic effect on COVID-19 incidence.
Conclusions: The study seems to confirm the literature on the influence of temperature on the lethality of COVID-19 but adds the new results of an inverse relationship between the spread of the virus and low temperature in regions between the Mediterranean area (which includes southern Italy and Sicily and Sardinia islands) and the cold European temperate zone which includes the northern regions under the Alps. A new date also concerns the summation effect of the risk between cold weather and PM10 air pollution was found. Due to several methodic weakness the study has an exploratory than conclusive relevance.
REFERENCES
Dong E, Du H, Gardner L. An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet Infect Dis 2020;20:533-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1
Carta MG, Romano F, Orrù G. The true challenges of the Covid-19 epidemics: The need for essential levels of care for all. Open Respir Med J 2020;14:8-9. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2174/1874306402014010008
Perrella A, Carannante N, Berretta M, et al. Novel Coronavirus 2019 (Sars-CoV2): a global emergency that needs new approaches? Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci 2020;24:2162-4.
John Hopkins University [Internet]. Coronavirus Resource Center 2020. Accessed: January 2021. Available from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
Mellet J, Pepper MS. A COVID-19 vaccine: Big strides come with big challenges. Vaccines (Basel) 2021;9:E39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9010039
Littera R, Campagna M, Deidda S, et al. Human leukocyte antigen complex and other immunogenetic and clinical factors influence susceptibility or protection to SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity of the disease course. The Sardinian experience. Front Immunol 2020;11:605688. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2020.605688
Cascetta E, Henke I, Di Francesco L. The effects of air pollution, sea exposure and altitude on COVID-19 hospitalization rates in Italy. Int J Environ Res Public Health 2021;18:E452. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020452
Carta MG, Scano A, Lindert J, et al. Association between the spread of COVID-19 and weather-climatic parameters. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci 2020;24:8226-31.
Bigdeli M, Rouffy B, Lane BD, et al. Health systems governance: the missing links. BMJ Global Health 2020;5:e002533. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002533
Bilal, Bashir MF, Komal B, et al. Nexus between the COVID-19 dynamics and environmental pollution indicators in South America. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2021;14:67-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S290153
Hu S, Xiong C, Yang M, et al. A big-data driven approach to analyzing and modeling human mobility trend under non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 pandemic. Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol 2021;124:102955. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2020.102955
Cascella M, Rajnik M, Cuomo A, et al. Features, evaluation, and treatment of coronavirus. StatPearls: Treasure Island; 2020.
Orrù G, Romano F, Scano A, et al. The climate in the European Union and the enlarged European region is a determinant of the COVID-19 case fatality ratio. Biointerface Res Appl Chem 2021;11:10979-86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33263/BRIAC113.1097910986
Carta MG, EskinM, Moussaoiu D, Karam E. Mental health in the Mediterranean Area. Clin Pract Epidemiol Ment Health 2020;16:67-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2174/1745017902016010067
Tuttitalia [Internet]. [Statistiche Demografiche – Italia. Popolazione per età, sesso e stato civile 2019.
Statistiche su dati ISTAT (Demographic Statistics – Italy. Population by age, sex and marital status 2019. Statistics on Italian Statistical Institute data)].[In Italian]. Accessed: 23 April 2021. Available from: https://www.tuttitalia.it/statistiche/popolazione-eta-sesso-stato-civile-2019/
ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale) [Internet]. [Valori climatici normali di temperatura e precipitazione in Italia (Climatic normal values of temperature and precipitation in Italy)].[In Italian]. Accessed: January 2020. Available from: https://www.isprambiente.gov.it/it/pubblicazioni/stato-dellambiente/valori-climatici-normali-di-temperatura-e-precipitazione-in-italia
Eumondo [Internet]. Centro Studi Federalberghi: [Classifica Turismo Regioni Italiane 2020 (Tourism Ranking Italian Regions 2020)].[in Italian]. Accessed: January 2020. Available from: https://eumondo.altervista.org/classifica-turismo-regioni-italiane-2020/
Wang Z, Fu Y, Guo Z, et al. Transmission and prevention of SARS-CoV-2. Biochem Soc Trans 2020;48:2307-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1042/BST20200693
Bugalia S, Bajiya VP, Tripathi JP, et al. Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission: the roles of intervention strategies and lockdown. Math Biosci Eng 2020;17;5961-86. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2020318
Wang Z, Duan Y, Jin Y, Zheng ZJ. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: how countries should build more resilient health systems for preparedness and response. Glob Health J 2020;4:139-45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glohj.2020.12.001
Abdalla M, Abar A, Beiter ER, Saad M. Asynchrony between individual and government actions accounts for disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable communities. Am J Prev Med 2021;60:318-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.10.012
Petretto DR, Masala I, Masala C. School closure and children in the outbreak of COVID-19. Clin Pract Epidemiol Ment Health 2020;16:189-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2174/1745017902016010189
Kurotschka PK, Serafini A, Demontis M, et al. General practitioners’ experiences during the first phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy: A critical incident technique study. Front Public Health 2021;9:623904. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.623904
Martín Giménez VM, Ferder L, Inserra F, et al. Differences in RAAS/vitamin D linked to genetics and socioeconomic factors could explain the higher mortality rate in African Americans with COVID-19. Ther Adv Cardiovasc Dis 2020;14:1753944720977715. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1753944720977715
Orrù G, Carta MG, Bramanti A. Design of FRET Probes for SNP RS1006737, Related to mood disorder. Clin Pract Epidemiol Ment Health 2018:14:53-62. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2174/1745017901814010053
Fan G, Yang Z, Lin Q, et al. Decreased case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the second wave: A study in 53 countries or regions. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021;68:213-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13819
Wu X, Nethery RC, Sabath MB, et al. Exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States. medRxiv 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.05.20054502
Fattorini D, Regoli F. Role of the chronic air pollution levels in the Covid-19 outbreak risk in Italy. Environ Pollut 2020;264:114732. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114732
Conticini E, Frediani B, Caro D. Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of SARS-CoV-2 lethality in Northern Italy? Environ Pollut 2020;261:114465. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2020.114465
Chen B, Jia P, Han J. Role of indoor aerosols for COVID-19 viral transmission: a review. Environ Chem Lett 2021;13:1-18. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-020-01174-8
Carta MG, Scano A, Minerba L, et al. Does living in previously exposed malaria or warm areas is associated with a lower risk of severe COVID-19 infection in Italy? Biointerface Research in Applied Chemistry 2021;11:9744-9748. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33263/BRIAC112.97449748
Carta MG, Kalcev G, Scano A, et al. Is the inversion in the trend of the Lethality of the COVID-19 in the two hemispheres due to the difference in seasons and weather? Biointerface Res Appl Chem 2021;11:10429-34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33263/BRIAC113.1042910434
Aviles-Gonzales CI, Orrù G, Brasesco MV, et al. COVID-19 case fatality ratio of Latino America Countries with temperate climate partially follows European and Oceania trends according to seasonal change. Biointerface Res Appl Chem 2021;11:11116-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33263/BRIAC114.1111611121
Sancassiani F, Carmassi C, Romano F, et al. Impairment of quality of life associated with lifetime diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder in women-A national survey in Italy. Clin Pract Epidemiol Ment Health 2019;15:38-43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2174/1745017901915010038